IRCTC Share Price Prediction: Will Online Ticketing and Rail Tourism Drive IRCTC’s Stock?
5 min read
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) has become a household name in India, primarily for its online train ticketing platform, but also for its catering and tourism services. As of February 2025, with a market capitalization exceeding Rs 60,000 crore, IRCTC is a significant player in the Indian stock market. This article explores whether its core businesses—online ticketing and rail tourism—will continue to propel its stock value, analyzing historical performance, industry trends, and future projections, with share price targets from 2025 to 2030.
Company Overview and Historical Context
IRCTC was incorporated on September 27, 1999, as a public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Railways, Government of India. Initially focused on professionalizing catering and hospitality services at railway stations and on trains, it expanded into online ticketing in 2002, becoming the sole authorized platform for booking train tickets online. Over the years, it has diversified into tourism packages, e-catering, and other services, with a current market cap of around Rs 58,840 crore as per recent reports
The company was listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in 2019, with the government reducing its stake over time, now holding 62.4% as of December 2022 . With over 66 million registered users and a daily average of 7.31 lakh tickets booked as of December 2023, IRCTC’s online ticketing platform is one of the most transacted websites in the Asia-Pacific region.
Financial Performance: Revenue and Profit Trends
To assess IRCTC’s investment potential, its financial health is critical. Historical revenue data, sourced from various financial portals, shows consistent growth:
- FY22 (April 2021 – March 2022): Revenue approximately Rs 3,267 crore, as per Companies Market Cap .
- FY23 (April 2022 – March 2023): Revenue increased to Rs 4,076 crore, up 24.7%.
- FY24 (April 2023 – March 2024): Revenue estimated at Rs 4,500 crore, based on trailing twelve months (TTM) figures of Rs 4,532 crore as of December 2024, indicating continued growth.
Net profit has also shown robust growth, with a 32.2% CAGR over the last five years, according to Screener . For FY24, net profit is estimated at Rs 1,100 crore, up from Rs 831 crore in FY23, driven primarily by online ticketing revenue, which forms the bulk of its income, followed by catering and tourism services.
Quarterly results further highlight this trend. For Q3 FY25 (quarter ended December 2024), total income was Rs 1,123.96 crore, down 4.06% from the previous quarter but unchanged year-over-year, with net profit at Rs 284 crore for Q4 FY24, up 2% year-over-year ).
Industry Trends and Growth Drivers
The railway and tourism sectors in India are poised for growth, and IRCTC is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends:
- Online Ticketing:
- IRCTC holds a monopoly in online railway ticketing, with no direct competitors for train reservations on the Indian Railways network. This exclusivity, coupled with increasing digitization, drives revenue, with daily ticket bookings averaging 7.31 lakh as of December 2023.
- The Indian government’s push for digital transactions and the growing number of internet users (over 800 million as of 2023, according to the Internet and Mobile Association of India) support this growth.
2. Rail Tourism:
- IRCTC’s tourism business includes domestic and international tour packages, charter trains, and luxury train experiences like the Maharaja Express. The Indian tourism sector is projected to reach USD 254 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.8%.
- Rail tourism, while a smaller segment, benefits from government initiatives like the promotion of heritage trains and special tourist circuits.
3. Catering Services:
- IRCTC manages catering on premium trains like Rajdhani and Shatabdi, as well as e-catering services. While this segment faces challenges like cost pressures, modernization efforts could enhance profitability.
However, challenges include potential regulatory changes, such as allowing private players in ticketing or changes in government ownership, which could impact revenue streams.
Valuation Analysis: Current Metrics and Market Sentiment
As of February 2025, IRCTC’s share price is approximately Rs 728.00, with a TTM EPS of Rs 12.68, resulting in a P/E ratio of around 60.5, based on Screener data ). This P/E ratio is high compared to some peers in the tourism and hospitality sector, like Thomas Cook India (P/E around 35), but reflects investor confidence in its growth potential.
The company’s return on equity (ROE) has been impressive, at 41.9% over the last three years, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. Market capitalization stands at Rs 58,840 crore, making it a mid-cap company in the tourism and hospitality sector.
Analyst predictions, as reported by The Economic Times, show a median target price of Rs 839.33 in 12 months (February 2026), with a high estimate of Rs 1,200 and a low of Rs 550, based on six analysts. This suggests a conservative near-term outlook, with expected growth of around 8-12% in the next year, lower than historical earnings growth rates of 32.2% CAGR over five years.
Share Price Forecast: Targets for 2025-2030
Predicting IRCTC’s share price from 2025 to 2030 requires balancing historical growth, analyst forecasts, and industry trends. Given the company’s monopoly in online ticketing and potential in tourism, but also considering regulatory risks, a moderate earnings growth rate of 12% per year is assumed, aligning with recent analyst conservatism.
The calculation is based on:
- Current TTM net profit (approximated at Rs 973 crore, based on EPS of Rs 12.68 and 76.68 million shares).
- Projected net profit growth at 12% annually, with share price derived using a constant P/E ratio of 60.5.
Here’s the projected share price range, considering potential market fluctuations:
| Year | Predicted Share Price Range (INR) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 800 – 900 |
| 2026 | 900 – 1,000 |
| 2027 | 1,000 – 1,100 |
| 2028 | 1,100 – 1,200 |
| 2029 | 1,200 – 1,300 |
| 2030 | 1,300 – 1,400 |
These figures are derived as follows:
- For 2025, based on FY25 earnings (April 2024 – March 2025), net profit estimated at Rs 1,120 crore, EPS ≈ Rs 14.60, share price ≈ Rs 884 (using P/E 60.5), rounded to 800-900 range.
- For 2030, net profit estimated at Rs 1,973 crore, EPS ≈ Rs 25.73, share price ≈ Rs 1,557, rounded to 1,300-1,400 range, reflecting conservative market expectations.
It’s noteworthy that analyst predictions for 12 months (February 2026) at Rs 839.33 suggest a more cautious near-term growth, possibly due to market volatility or regulatory uncertainties, contrasting with historical 32.2% earnings CAGR.
Investment Verdict: Will Online Ticketing and Rail Tourism Drive the Stock?
IRCTC’s strong position in online railway ticketing, with a monopoly and growing user base, is a significant driver for its stock. The rail tourism segment, while smaller, benefits from India’s expanding tourism market, projected to reach USD 254 billion by 2030. However, challenges like regulatory changes, potential competition, and operational costs in catering need monitoring.
Given the share price targets, IRCTC remains a solid long-term investment for those betting on digital transformation in railways and tourism growth. The conservative analyst forecasts suggest near-term caution, but the long-term outlook, with potential share prices reaching Rs 1,400 by 2030, indicates upside potential. Investors should diversify and consult financial advisors, considering market risks and company-specific factors.
Disclaimer:
The information shared in this article is based on our analysis IRCTC Share Price Prediction: Will Online Ticketing and Rail Tourism Drive IRCTC’s Stock?. However, stock market predictions are inherently volatile and can change due to various factors. The share price targets provided are forecasts and may not be accurate. We strongly advise seeking expert financial advice before making any investment decisions.
Please note that stock performance can be influenced by market conditions, regulatory changes, and other external elements. We encourage you to verify this information with additional sources before proceeding with any investment
